BN nearing the End?

This post can also be titled "The making of a two-party system?".. As far as Malaysian history is concerned, never before a ruling party other than Barisan Nasional has ever ruled the government of Malaysia. The alliance of UMNO, MCA and MIC has been a successful working formula since the independence day. The failure of the opposition to form an alliance due to different ideologies has make it a non-threat to the ruling parties and therefore BN always have garnered a 2/3 majority. It is not until the recent election whereby the opposition have denied the BN a 2/3 majority. The oppositions consists of PAS, PKR and DAP have decided to work together and therefore creates a formidable force against BN. Their cooperations however is hinged upon one dominant person - Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim. This alliance is still intact until today due to this one person who is holding the pact together. Remove this person, and the opposition will crumble. BN knows this and therefore you can see their strategy from the very beginning is to attack Anwar Ibrahim.

Whether this strategy will work or not, we will see in the next election in the near future. However, one good thing that came out of this is the possibility of an alternative ruling party besides BN to the citizen of Malaysia, whereby, we as the rakyat of Malaysia can choose. If the ruling party does not perform or corrupted, we can change it through the election and therefore ends a monopoly of one single political party. This perspective have never been available before due to the weak opposition pact before this. With or without Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition must be a credible force and therefore will make BN on their toe and perform at best for the nation. They should not be sitting comfortable because come the next election, they will probably loose power. This will make any ruling party after this to perform and be accountable to their action. It is a good thing for Malaysia to have. It is democracy at its best.

Perkasa - A Swing Vote

The Political divide caused by the election tsunami in 2008 is still being felt until today. Malay especially has been torn apart between PAS supporters, UMNO supporters, PKR supporters and also who sits in the fences and do not support any parties. Before this, the Malay who neither liked the extremist view of PAS and in the same time rejected the elitism of UMNO will tend to join PKR as a way to express their view as a modern malay. However, recent trends have shown how PKR is not willing to defend Malay's right as they need to 'kowtim' with their 'sleeping partner' the DAP. DAP having certain extent of an extremist view of a Malaysian Malaysia will not let PKR defend malay rights.

So, this have left a gap of political supporters from some of the Malay group who wants to defend the rights of the Malay according the constitution. This scenario has been worsened by the 1Malaysia agenda by YAB Dato Sri Najib whereby some quarters feels it equates with equality among all races regardless whether you are in a majority or minority. 1Malaysia is a good agenda but in the same time it gives permission for others to start attacking the constitution right of the Malays.If UMNO who should have been the caretaker of Malay rights is promoting 1Malaysia, which other party should this group of Malays would have gone to? This is where Dato' Ibrahim Ali played a very strategic move by creating Perkasa. Perkasa in a way fills the gap that some of the Malays who still feels they need to protect their rights as given in the constitution. Neither UMNO or PKR or PAS is doing this.So, they come to Perkasa for the rescue. Eventhough DAP, PKR and even UMNO are calling Perkasa as a racist group, but I have a feeling there will be also a huge silent majority who is also supporting Perkasa agenda. And this silent majority will become a crucial vote in the next election. Backup by Dr Mahathir himself, do not underestimate Perkasa as I feel they can be a swing vote to either BN or the oppositions during the next general election.

Politics is all about perception

If you watch closely all Anwar Ibrahim's speeches, you can see the pattern of his speeches. He tends to repeat the same topics that he knows people would like to hear. He will also know what keywords that triggers the emotion of people and audiences. He also knows what keywords that are current and sensational. Such keywords are like 'altantunya', 'price hike', 'toll hike', etc and he rarely uses bombactic words. As for the leaders of UMNO / BN, you can see that their speeches are sometimes full of keywords that sometimes feels out of touch of the common people. Eventhough the keywords of their speech is important such as 'knowledge based', 'innovation', 'sustainable development', it rarely touch the heart of the majority of the people. And I am starting to see the same pattern used by our new prime minister, Dato' Seri Najib. He must acknowledged that his main competitor is Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim and he is still winning in terms of creating the perception that he is more closer to the rakyat compared to Najib. If BN wants to win PRU13, perception management must be given due priority. Even the word 'turun padang' is actually an insult to the people. It is very feudalistic and seems to inspire that the minister is sitting on a throne and have to come down from the throne to join the peasants in the field.

R.A.H.M.A.N Theory

There is a theory that has been going around since Tun Dr M's era of premiership. The theory is that the first alphabet of the name of the Prime Minister of Malaysia will follow these alphabets R.A.H.M.A.N. And quite coincidently, our first prime minister is Tunku Abdul RAHMAN. The theory is quite freaky if you think about it. Now that Paklah will hand over his job to Najib in March next year, it will make the theory into reality. When the theory arised during Mahathir's era, many people think that the A after the M must be Anwar. But, alas, the A are destined to be Abdullah instead. Now, many people believe that the N after the A would be Najib. But, nothing is confirmed in politics. Najib maybe seems to be heading towards the throne, but until March next year, we can only wait and see. Probably, the N can be Nik Aziz or Nurul Izzah :) hmmm...

Anwar have been Checkmated by Pak Lah?

16 September comes, 16 September goes.
BN still in power, and Pakatan Rakyat are in woes.

There could be much speculation about why Anwar have not revealed the 31 names yet, and none of the existing MPs have defected yet. But, if the script goes well, Anwar should have announced it already. As Pak Lah have stated yesterday, if Anwar already have the defectors in line, why need to request to see him. Anwar and his goons can stormed into Putrajaya already.

In my opinion is that, the Prime Minister seat is now not in the hand of Rakyat, but more to the hands of these 31 MPs. Is that democratic or what? These 31 MPS or can I say 0.00001% of Malaysia's population has become a power shifter and can decide for us who will govern the country. And we as a citizen are only a spectator to these power greedy fellas. Anwar knows this very well and that's why he is been chasing these MPs like no one business. Anwar must persuade these MPs to discard their integrity and honor in order for them to jump ship. What possible reason and strong enough motivation for them to hop to the other side? I can only think of two major factor - Better Position and Better Money. Because if these 31 MPS are really a noble person, and thinking of the Rakyat, they will not jump ship. It is because they are elected to the parliamentary seat by the supporters of BN and the people who believe in BN. By jumping ship, they are betraying the trust of the people who put them there. So, to persuade an MP to jump ship, Anwar must find MPs that have no disregards of the people who elected them and selfish enough to take the bait by Pakatan Rakyat. So, Anwar, please reveal the names, I definitely would not vote for this hopping MPs ever again.

Anwar vs Shabery: Another Milestone for Malaysian Democracy

I just could not believe it. A live debate (US presidential debate style) between the government and opposition live in television. I never thought that this would happen here in Malaysia. The first question people will ask after this would always be, Who Wins? From my personal opinion, in terms of style and rhetorics, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim hands down. Datuk Shabery is no match with this legendary orator. But in terms of content and substance, I have to say it is a tie. Both gave some hard facts and but both gave no concrete solution in reducing the oil price.

As Anwar have proposed, RM5 billion government subsidy for a 50 sen reduction of oil price? Until when? Is he on denial? He must accept the fact that the oil price will keep on increasing. It is a depleted resource of energy. How can a depleted resource that is being consumed everday plus with the increasing demand would decrease in price in the future? Dato Ahmad Shabery also fails to counter Anwar's statement in the leakage of government money that can be used to reduce the oil price. He seems to be just following a prepared script and not doing an impromptu reply on that. All in all, watching the debate is like watching a boxing match but with no clear TKO.

But, personally, I think the big winner here is the MALAYSIAN DEMOCRACY. Finally it has reached a stage of maturity whereby we can let the people decide who really champions their plight and issues. Congratulations to two both individuals Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Ahmad Shabery and the organiser Agenda Daily in making this happen. Hope there will be more debates like this in the future.

Who needs to go to the Movies when you have Malaysian Politics

It got all the elements for a blockbuster movie. Sex, Money, Power, Corruption and also Love perhaps (gay love is still a love nevertheless). Put it all in one script that ran almost 20 years. You can even get a trilogy out of it.

The first part can be entitled Anwar: A New Hope. This part chronicles the rise of young Anwar from street politics to mainstream politics. Handpicked by the Master jedi, Dr M himself to become the successor of his empire. He soon rise and became the second most powerful figure in Malaysia. But nevertheless, it is not destined for Anwar yet to become the leader of this great nation. The attraction of power is too great and has led Anwar to go against his own Master. Alas, this led to a final battle where Anwar is defeated and the Master Jedi seems to be much powerful than he anticipated. This part ended with Anwar been thrown into the dungeon.

The second part of the trilogy is entitled Anwar: The Reformasi Strikes Back. In this part, six years has gone by and Anwar manage to free himself from the dungeon. He reconnects with his old rebellion and also united the other rebels who have gone into hiding. Standing united they form an alliance to once again do battle with powers that be. Skirmishes and battles are launched. Attacks and counter attacks occured. This second part is full of action from the start. The ending scene for this part is where Anwar and his rebellion celebrates as they have won a very critical battle and had captured 5 states.

The Final trilogy is entitled Anwar: Return of the King. The script of this part is yet to be written as it is unfolding right at this very moment. Will Anwar finally claim his destiny as the ruler of this great nation or die trying? Or will the powers that be triumph? As any blockbuster epic movie would end, a climax battle will happened. So, stay tune. :)

It's 1998 all over again

I'm confused. Anwar Ibrahim has been charged with sodomy but then he gets a death threat and wants confirmation from the Government for his safety? What about the so called victim? Shouldn't the police protect the victim first? Who is protecting Saiful Bukhari? I do not know whether this guy is right or wrong.. but still, this guy's life is also in danger since the accusation has serious implication. And then the flip-flop statement from PKR. At first they stated that Saiful was forced by the police to make a police report. Suddenly Anwar files a civil suit to Saiful for defamation? Najib's statement also is confusing. How come Saiful can went to his office asking the deputy prime minister's office for scholarship? Since when the DPM's office offers a scholarship? And the more interesting question is, does the DPM office approved of this so called scholarship? hmmm..

Abdullah and Altantunya Saga

KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has refuted an allegation that he had received a written report from military intelligence over the murder of Mongolian Altantuya Shaariibuu.

“Of course I am concerned (over the allegation by Malaysia Today blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin). What Raja Petra did is unacceptable ... because what he stated is incorrect.
“It is stated (in Raja Petra’s statutory declaration) that I received a report from the military intelligence. That is not correct,” he said yesterday.

Abdullah said this when asked to comment on the statutory declaration made by Raja Petra on June 18 in which he stated, among others, that Abdullah had received a written report from military intelligence on Altantuya's murder. – Bernama

If I interpreted this news correctly, Pak Lah is saying that the part he received the report from the military intelligence on Altatunya case is incorrect. But, what about the other statement from the statutory declaration? Why Pak Lah did not say the other statement is incorrect too? Hmmmmmm.... :P

Anwar Ibrahim: The Art of War

Anwar Ibrahim must probably be strategising when he is in the solitary confinement of his prison for six years. The grand master plan must be entitled "How to become Malaysia's next Prime Minister". So, far the blueprint has been executed well. Let's look at this strategy that he probably used in PRU12.

"Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near." - Sun Tzu

Before election, BN seems to be overconfident and have been targeting to win Kelantan. They assume that the opposition will not be united as before. They even underestimate the influence of Anwar Ibrahim. And Anwar plays the card well. By appearing not united and even not a threat to BN, it makes Pak Lah and the gang even more confident to put all of their resources to win back Kelantan. But, it seems its not Kelantan that they should be worried about but the entire states as well.

These are another excerpt from the famous Art Of War by Sun Tzu:-
1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?
4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
5) Which army is stronger?
6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?

By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat. - Sun Tzu

The Pakatan Rakyat has been tackling these strategies very well. Let's see here.

1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
People sees that the moral value is more towards Pakatan Rakyat than BN. This is made
worse by the Lingam tape, Chua Soi Lek scandal and etc.

2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
Charismatically, Anwar seems to be seen more able compared to Pak Lah.

3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?
PAS got this one covered. ;)

4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
Before this, BN seems to have the upper hand. but BN flip flop decision in recent events have tarnished this image.

5) Which army is stronger?
BN stills holds the majority seat and therefore appears stronger. But, this may change if there are party crossover by BN components.

6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
BN still wins on this but please be remind that Anwar was once acting Prime Minister. Therefore, the credentials still holds for both sides.

7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?

In tackling this issue, both sides should be fulfilling their manifesto as promised. Whoever sides constantly fulfills the manifesto, should win the battle.

So, from this strategy, who appears to be winning?

And the crumble begins

SAPP's vote of no confidence against PM
The Star, 18th June 2008

KOTA KINABALU: The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) has lost confidence in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, it said at a press conference here Wednesday.
In the coming sitting of the Parliament session on Monday, its two Members of Parliament will support a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, the party said.
Whether its MPs table the vote of no confidence, or whether other MPs will do it, would be determined in due course, it said in a statement.

SAPP’s two MPs are Datuk Eric Enchin Majimbun (P171 Sepanggar) and Datuk Dr Chu Soon Bui (P190 Tawau). The party also has four state representatives. Talk had been rife Wednesday morning that SAPP was going to abandon the Barisan Nasional coalition and defect to the Pakatan Rakyat alliance.

The party is running a poll on its blog, asking members of the public whether it should stay on in Barisan, leave the coalition but remain independent, or join Pakatan.
At press time, there were 532 votes tallied, with 80% (428 votes) asking SAPP to join Pakatan. Only 1% (10 votes) urged it to stay on with Barisan.

...And, the crumble of BN begins. If Mahathir leaving UMNO only creates a dent, this major move by SAPP will definitely break loose the water in the dam. I am not suprised that we probably going to have a new prime minister before the end of this year.

Snooping Squad or Assasination Squad?

The latest fiasco disclosed by the MCA. It has been alleged that the president of MCA have formed a secret group aka snoop squad to spy on potential enemies of the president. Among the casualties of the snoop squad are Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek. So far, Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting have been denying the accusations. My question is, why name it snooping squad? It will be way much cooler to name the secret group as the assassination squad. During operation time, they will sneak around in a ninja outfit placing hidden cameras and whoosh, they are gone. That will be much cooler that imagining a bunch of old grown men snooping around peeking at hotel rooms or events to see any dirty laundries by their enemies. And by the way, good job guys. At least on the positive note, you have done your work well. As Yoda have said “Named must your fear be before banish it you can.”

Can these be the MCA Snoop Squad?

Jump Froggers, Jump !!

Calling all Yang Berhormat froggers out there. On 16th September 2008, on the cue of the master strategist piper, Anwar Ibrahim, you will all jump with harmony and with a synchronous frog sound hailing the dawn of a new Malaysia. To all Yang Berhormat Froggers, please disregard the voters that have vote you up there. You will hop to wherever place you think are the best position for you and your family. Who cares right. Democracy? What Democracy? Hoppingnism is the new trend now. If you feel not well treated on the other side, YB can simply hop back, right? Or probably these YB should form a new party called Barisan Katak Nasional. The tagline "Bersedia melompat mengikut Arahan (atau harga yg berpatutan)". So, once again. All YB Froggers, please be prepare on 16th September. You have been informed.

Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim - Saviour or Witchhunter?

Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. A name that I just knew after the election. At first, I thought that this guy must be good. Appointed as the new Menteri Besar of Selangor, he can finally bring a wind of change to Selangor and bring better governence. Being a former CEO of PNB, he must have good business acumen and therefore be able to develop the economy of Selangor. That all of course my positive impression until the proposed RM100 million babi in Sepang came about. I was frustrated on how he handled that thing. It shows a weakness in the administration and the attitude that the current state Government have. If the rakyat does not like it, blame the past administration. What the .... ? Have you forgotten that you are now THE STATE GOVERNMENT and not the opposition anymore. Why make a press statement saying that Khir Toyo's past administration approved it while you currently have the power to stop the project? It really looks like you just want to cuci tangan only but in the sametime approved something just for the sake of pleasing the DAP.

Another event was how he handled Radio Selangor. Throwing them out of your building because of them refusing to give you a slot seems very childish. What happen to diplomatic ways? And finally the digging up of past exco expenditure. Is it me or I think that the current state exco is more interested in witch hunt and personal vendetta than focussing on administring a good state government?

Malaysian History X

Mahathir got it right the first time by speaking out his mind to Tunku Abdul Rahman. In which in a letter he sent, he criticised Tunku of weak administration that causes the 1969 racial riot. Being sacked after that for being a 'kurang ajar', he spent his days in political wilderness writing a book called 'The Malays Dilemma." I think if the internet existed in those days, he will definitely blog his brain out. Now, fast forward to the future. Mukhriz, his son is attempting to do the same manner as was his father did in 1969; sent a letter to Paklah asking for his resignation. Wahh.. so creative this Mukhriz fella. Just follow your daddy's footstep all the way. But, the only thing different is, Mukhriz did not get sacked from UMNO. But, I bet that quietly, people in UMNO are starting to rally around this guy. This is bcoz if history really did repeat itself, Mukhriz will go far.

Mukhriz vs Hishamuddin

"Let's settle this like a man. Last one standing gets the seat "

In Utusan Malaysia today, Mukhriz made a statement that he is waiting Hishamudin, his boss to make a move to vacant his seat first, before declaring his intention whether to contest for the Ketua Pemuda UMNO or not. Alaa.. come on la.. Politics in Malaysia is so very polite one laa. I don't get it. If Mukhriz is so brave enough to send a letter to Paklah asking him to resign, why suddenly become so coward in challenging Hishamuddin? You can insult the big boss of UMNO himself, but still playing safe at the Pemuda level? Just go ahead step in the ring, challenge Hishamuddin. Whether or not he is vacancying the seat is different matter.

Dawn of a new era?

I can't believe it. Finally, a strong opposition in the parliament. The Wind of Change is in the horizon. Or is it? My personal view is that the de facto of the recent suprise of the PRU12 Malaysian Election result is simply due to the fact that Barisan Nasional is no longer at the heart of young voters. BN did not even have an official blog. BN seems to be trapped in the old school ways of campaigning. By controlling the content in Mass Media and playing up the sentiments through government controlled newspaper by a 'syok sendiri' campaign. Duhhh. so outdated. Time Mahathir bolehla camtu. University students, graduates, young professionals simply do not feel the connection with Barisan Nasional. They now have multiple sources for information and the mass media is no longer the only source.My view also is that Malaysian's now are not like the previous generation. We as a nation has now all grown up and as like any young adults who just starting to develop, we do not like to be told what to do. Right or wrong, we have our own opinion on what's best for our life. BN playing a father figure, playing a "I know whats best for you" policy is no longer accepted. There is now a two-way communication and not just a one sided communication.

The widespread perception of UMNO also does not help either. If you are an UMNO member, you must be aftering contracts from the Government. If you are an UMNO member, you just want to get in the influential circle. Hey.. what happen to the spirit of upholding 'Agama, Bangsa dan Negara'? And to make it worse, add-in a pinch of elitism, a spoonful of nepotism, a cup full of money politics in the UMNO circle and wal-lah, you got the perfect recipe for a disfunctional organisation. Honestly, if a Prime Minister himself have to announce time and time again in the newspaper he is in control of the country, in control of the party, surely something must be wrong. If you are in control, you do not even need to tell people that.

Yes, the price hike in oil and others plays a critical factor also, but, surely, the voters also knew that the opposition also cannot do much about it. The PRU12 sends a clear message that BN has lost its relevancy. So, what usually can we do if a car breaks down? Change the driver or change the engines?