It's 1998 all over again

I'm confused. Anwar Ibrahim has been charged with sodomy but then he gets a death threat and wants confirmation from the Government for his safety? What about the so called victim? Shouldn't the police protect the victim first? Who is protecting Saiful Bukhari? I do not know whether this guy is right or wrong.. but still, this guy's life is also in danger since the accusation has serious implication. And then the flip-flop statement from PKR. At first they stated that Saiful was forced by the police to make a police report. Suddenly Anwar files a civil suit to Saiful for defamation? Najib's statement also is confusing. How come Saiful can went to his office asking the deputy prime minister's office for scholarship? Since when the DPM's office offers a scholarship? And the more interesting question is, does the DPM office approved of this so called scholarship? hmmm..

Global recession near the corner?

"The Great Depression was a dramatic, worldwide economic downturn beginning in some countries as early as 1928.[1] The beginning of the Great Depression in the United States is associated with the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday and the end is associated with the onset of the war economy of World War II, beginning around 1939." - source Wikipedia

This info I got from wikipedia really freaks me out in one way or another. There has been talks in the newspaper, magazines, that if the trend of oil price increase continues, it will trigger a economic recession all around the world. This will also led to a another great depression similar to what have happened in the 1940's.

As people always say, history tends to repeat itself. If we were headed to another global recession, is it also possible that we will be heading towards another world war? This is another info I got from wikipedia:-

"Germany's Weimar Republic was hit hard by the depression, as American loans to help rebuild the German economy now stopped. Unemployment soared, especially in larger cities, and the political system veered toward extremism. Repayment of the war reparations due by Germany were suspended in 1932 following the Lausanne Conference of 1932. By that time Germany had repaid 1/8th of the reparations. Hitler's Nazi Party came to power in January 1933". - Wikipedia

So, basically due to the recession, Hitler managed to get in power due to unsatisfied citizens at that time trying to cope with rising inflations. Sounds familiar right? The number of unemployed in German grew; poverty on the rise, people starved on the streets. In the crisis, people wanted someone to take the blame and Hitler offered them the solution, and Nazi succeeded in taking power. After Hitler comes to power, the next thing he did was to divert the attention of the german people from the crisis that they have and focus it on expanding the german empire by invading other countries. Therefore, World War two unfolded. As I said again earlier, history tends to repeat itself and I greatly hope that this one would not.

Abdullah and Altantunya Saga

KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has refuted an allegation that he had received a written report from military intelligence over the murder of Mongolian Altantuya Shaariibuu.

“Of course I am concerned (over the allegation by Malaysia Today blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin). What Raja Petra did is unacceptable ... because what he stated is incorrect.
“It is stated (in Raja Petra’s statutory declaration) that I received a report from the military intelligence. That is not correct,” he said yesterday.

Abdullah said this when asked to comment on the statutory declaration made by Raja Petra on June 18 in which he stated, among others, that Abdullah had received a written report from military intelligence on Altantuya's murder. – Bernama

If I interpreted this news correctly, Pak Lah is saying that the part he received the report from the military intelligence on Altatunya case is incorrect. But, what about the other statement from the statutory declaration? Why Pak Lah did not say the other statement is incorrect too? Hmmmmmm.... :P

Anwar Ibrahim: The Art of War

Anwar Ibrahim must probably be strategising when he is in the solitary confinement of his prison for six years. The grand master plan must be entitled "How to become Malaysia's next Prime Minister". So, far the blueprint has been executed well. Let's look at this strategy that he probably used in PRU12.

"Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near." - Sun Tzu

Before election, BN seems to be overconfident and have been targeting to win Kelantan. They assume that the opposition will not be united as before. They even underestimate the influence of Anwar Ibrahim. And Anwar plays the card well. By appearing not united and even not a threat to BN, it makes Pak Lah and the gang even more confident to put all of their resources to win back Kelantan. But, it seems its not Kelantan that they should be worried about but the entire states as well.

These are another excerpt from the famous Art Of War by Sun Tzu:-
1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?
4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
5) Which army is stronger?
6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?

By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat. - Sun Tzu

The Pakatan Rakyat has been tackling these strategies very well. Let's see here.

1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
People sees that the moral value is more towards Pakatan Rakyat than BN. This is made
worse by the Lingam tape, Chua Soi Lek scandal and etc.

2) Which of the two generals has most ability?
Charismatically, Anwar seems to be seen more able compared to Pak Lah.

3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth?
PAS got this one covered. ;)

4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced?
Before this, BN seems to have the upper hand. but BN flip flop decision in recent events have tarnished this image.

5) Which army is stronger?
BN stills holds the majority seat and therefore appears stronger. But, this may change if there are party crossover by BN components.

6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained?
BN still wins on this but please be remind that Anwar was once acting Prime Minister. Therefore, the credentials still holds for both sides.

7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?

In tackling this issue, both sides should be fulfilling their manifesto as promised. Whoever sides constantly fulfills the manifesto, should win the battle.

So, from this strategy, who appears to be winning?

And the crumble begins

SAPP's vote of no confidence against PM
The Star, 18th June 2008

KOTA KINABALU: The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) has lost confidence in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, it said at a press conference here Wednesday.
In the coming sitting of the Parliament session on Monday, its two Members of Parliament will support a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, the party said.
Whether its MPs table the vote of no confidence, or whether other MPs will do it, would be determined in due course, it said in a statement.

SAPP’s two MPs are Datuk Eric Enchin Majimbun (P171 Sepanggar) and Datuk Dr Chu Soon Bui (P190 Tawau). The party also has four state representatives. Talk had been rife Wednesday morning that SAPP was going to abandon the Barisan Nasional coalition and defect to the Pakatan Rakyat alliance.

The party is running a poll on its blog, asking members of the public whether it should stay on in Barisan, leave the coalition but remain independent, or join Pakatan.
At press time, there were 532 votes tallied, with 80% (428 votes) asking SAPP to join Pakatan. Only 1% (10 votes) urged it to stay on with Barisan.

...And, the crumble of BN begins. If Mahathir leaving UMNO only creates a dent, this major move by SAPP will definitely break loose the water in the dam. I am not suprised that we probably going to have a new prime minister before the end of this year.

Inflation vs EPF

With the oil price going up the roof, the domino effect will eventually spiral down to the consumer products and sooner or later inflation will rise like hell. Unfortunately, the malaysian average salary remains the same and so does our EPF contribution. Bank Negara has announced that the inflation can rise to 5% this year due to the recent oil price increase. The effect of inflation can be simplifiy like this. If you have RM1,000 locked in your EPF today, assuming we have an average of inflation of 2% for the next 36 years, your money is worth RM500 by then. Going by the average of return from EPF since 1980's till now, the average return is only at 5%-6%. That is not enough for our money to keep up with the inflation. That also means as you retired, your supposed-to-be retirement money can only lasts for 5 to 6 years only as your money has decreased in value. This is an alarming fact for all Malaysians and should be taken seriously. Definitely we would not want to retire at the age of 55 and only to realise that we have to work again at 60.

Complacent Malaysians

Malaysians, regardless of race, has become complacent. What I mean by complacent is that Malaysians will always expect the government to handle their problems and to protect their futures. We kinda like a spoilt brat who always assume our parents knows best and will protect us and solve any mischievous things that we have done. We as a nation have put too much faith in politicians and MPs to solve our problems. Why I came to this conclusion is based on the recent events that occured lately. The oil price hike, food price increase, the toll increase, the general election, and even our deterioting relationship with different races in the country has been pinpointed to the government (more so to Pak Lah).

I am not defending the government here but it seems that we blame the government on almost everything. We have to realise that many problems occured today cannot be solved by the government (They are humans anyway). The MP can quarrel from dusk till dawn in the parliament, but in reality it is really up to us to solve our own problem. We have developed a entitlement mentality whereby we always expect the government's handout to solve our problem. With all the complaints on the government for the food price increase, we still have extra money to vote for our favourite singer in reality tv such as Akademi Fantasia, One in a million, Gangstarz and etc. We complaint about the flash flood occured in the city but yet some of us still throw away thrashes in the drain. We blame the government about the racial disunity but actually it is really up to us to bring that racial divide closer. Simple, start being nice and trustworthy to each other. Changes are occuring everywhere in the world and not just Malaysia. On my personal view, we are at the tipping point of either another global recession similar to the 1930's or something entirely new. When it happens, if we are not ready, we have only ourselves to blame.